Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 18

Hamburger SV–Borussia Mönchengladbach

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hamburger SV		Borussia Mönchengladbach
25	Shots	6
12	Shots on target	0
14	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	12
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
538	Passes	409
462	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hamburger SV 1.67 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.48. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Hamburger SV 25 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 6; on target 12 and 0.
Hamburger SV kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Robert Schröder, Germany→

4.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Hamburger SV to win”. Second comes “Borussia Mönchengladbach to win” at 33.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Hamburger SV, 1.38 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,069 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hamburger SV to win39.5%

Draw26.8%

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win33.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hamburger SV lead at half-time27.1%

Level at half-time40.5%

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time32.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Hamburger SV ahead or level67.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead72.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1069 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hamburger SV: at least 10Actual: 16
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 10Actual: 18

Corners

Hamburger SV: at least 4Actual: 2
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.67

Attack: Hamburger SV score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.48

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–19.5%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.