Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 18

1899 Hoffenheim–Bayer Leverkusen

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'1899 HoffenheimW. Burger

Match statistics

Match statistics
1899 Hoffenheim		Bayer Leverkusen
19	Shots	8
8	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
3	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
347	Passes	576
265	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.50 · Bayer Leverkusen 1.78. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots 1899 Hoffenheim 19 · Bayer Leverkusen 8; on target 8 and 2.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Daniel Schlager, Germany→

4.31

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.1%: “1899 Hoffenheim to win”. Second comes “Bayer Leverkusen to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1.56 for Bayer Leverkusen.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,069 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1899 Hoffenheim to win41.1%

Draw24.9%

Bayer Leverkusen to win34.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time35.0%

Level at half-time35.1%

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time29.9%

First-half double chance

1X — 1899 Hoffenheim ahead or level70.1%

12 — not level at half-time64.9%

X2 — level or Bayer Leverkusen ahead65.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1069 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 12Actual: 17
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 8Actual: 7

Corners

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 4Actual: 3
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.50

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.78

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–19.5%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.