Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 18

Werder Bremen–Eintracht Frankfurt

3–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 16 January 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Weserstadion, Bremen

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'Eintracht FrankfurtA. Kalimuendo (assist: N. Brown)
29'Werder BremenJ. Njinmah (assist: Y. Sugawara)
56'Eintracht FrankfurtN. Collins (assist: F. Chaibi)
78'Werder BremenJ. Stage (assist: Samuel Mbangula)
80'Werder BremenJ. Milosevic (assist: Romano Schmid)
90'Eintracht Frankfurt

Match statistics

Match statistics
Werder Bremen		Eintracht Frankfurt
13	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
524	Passes	345
423	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Werder Bremen 1.53 · Eintracht Frankfurt 1.72. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Werder Bremen 13 · Eintracht Frankfurt 8; on target 4 and 4.
Werder Bremen kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Benjamin Brand, Germany→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.7%: “Werder Bremen to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Frankfurt to win” at 36.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Werder Bremen, 1.45 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,068 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Werder Bremen to win36.7%

Draw26.8%

Eintracht Frankfurt to win36.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Werder Bremen lead at half-time23.1%

Level at half-time37.8%

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time39.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Werder Bremen ahead or level60.9%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Eintracht Frankfurt ahead76.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1068 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Werder Bremen: at least 9Actual: 8
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Werder Bremen: at least 4Actual: 4
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.53

Attack: Werder Bremen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score1.72

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–19.2%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.