Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 17

FC Augsburg–Union Berlin

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 15 January 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'FC AugsburgA. Claude-Maurice
89'Union BerlinD. Kohn · red card
90'Union BerlinM. LjubiÄiÄ (assist: A. Ilic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Augsburg		Union Berlin
9	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	13
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
409	Passes	455
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Augsburg 1.33 · Union Berlin 1.42. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FC Augsburg 9 · Union Berlin 16; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

Florian Badstubner, Germany→

2.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.5%: “FC Augsburg to win”. Second comes “Union Berlin to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for FC Augsburg, 1.17 for Union Berlin.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,067 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Augsburg to win36.5%

Draw29.7%

Union Berlin to win33.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Augsburg lead at half-time28.1%

Level at half-time40.5%

Union Berlin lead at half-time31.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Augsburg ahead or level68.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Union Berlin ahead71.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1067 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 9
Union Berlin: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

FC Augsburg: at least 4Actual: 3
Union Berlin: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.33

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union Berlin score1.42

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.2%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.