Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 17

1. FC Köln–Bayern München

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 14 January 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'1. FC KölnL. Maina
45'Bayern MünchenS. Gnabry (assist: M. Olise)
71'Bayern MünchenKim Min-Jae (assist: H. Ito)
84'Bayern MünchenL. Karl (assist: L. Díaz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Köln		Bayern München
8	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	8
5	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	6
3	Offsides	5
28%	Possession	72%
248	Passes	680
174	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Köln 0.83 · Bayern München 2.77. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots 1. FC Köln 8 · Bayern München 19; on target 3 and 8.
Bayern München kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

Patrick Ittrich, Germany→

3.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.7%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.04 for 1. FC Köln, 3.00 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 91.4% (X2 — draw or Bayern München win).
These values were computed from 1,064 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Köln to win8.6%

Draw13.7%

Bayern München to win77.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

3	Fouls	4

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

1. FC Köln lead at half-time7.4%

Level at half-time30.6%

Bayern München lead at half-time62.0%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Köln ahead or level38.0%

12 — not level at half-time69.4%

X2 — level or Bayern München ahead92.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1064 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Köln: at least 8Actual: 3
Bayern München: at least 9Actual: 4

Corners

1. FC Köln: at least 3Actual: 4
Bayern München: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Köln score0.83

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayern München score2.77

Attack: Bayern München score 85% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–39.2%1–28.9%0–38.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.