Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 17

1899 Hoffenheim–Borussia Mönchengladbach

5–1

HT 4–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 14 January 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
1899 Hoffenheim		Borussia Mönchengladbach
18	Shots	7
10	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
645	Passes	336
554	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.86 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.42. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots 1899 Hoffenheim 18 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 7; on target 10 and 5.
1899 Hoffenheim kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Christian Dingert, Germany→

4.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.1%: “1899 Hoffenheim to win”. Second comes “Borussia Mönchengladbach to win” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1.28 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,064 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1899 Hoffenheim to win50.1%

Draw24.6%

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win25.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 4–0

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time39.2%

Level at half-time37.3%

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time23.6%

First-half double chance

1X — 1899 Hoffenheim ahead or level76.4%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead60.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1064 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 11Actual: 16
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 5Actual: 6
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.86

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.42

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.5%2–07.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.