Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 32

İstanbulspor–Giresunspor

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 1 May 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'İstanbulsporE. Eze (assist: E. Rroca)
49'İstanbulsporS. Deli · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
İstanbulspor		Giresunspor
5	Shots	30
2	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	19
7	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
30%	Possession	70%
266	Passes	623
183	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: İstanbulspor 1.65 · Giresunspor 1.33. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots İstanbulspor 5 · Giresunspor 30; on target 2 and 7.
Giresunspor kept the ball more (70%).

Unavailable players

Giresunspor

A. Perezout · Elbow Injury
F. Senghorout · Thigh Injury
V. Savicevicout · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:02.

Referee

M. Kalkavan→

3.77

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “İstanbulspor to win”. Second comes “Giresunspor to win” at 32.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for İstanbulspor, 1.39 for Giresunspor.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 270 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

İstanbulspor to win41.8%

Draw26.2%

Giresunspor to win32.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

İstanbulspor lead at half-time37.6%

Level at half-time40.1%

Giresunspor lead at half-time22.3%

First-half double chance

1X — İstanbulspor ahead or level77.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Giresunspor ahead62.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 270 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

İstanbulspor: at least 12Actual: 6
Giresunspor: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

İstanbulspor: at least 4Actual: 3
Giresunspor: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals İstanbulspor score1.65

Attack: İstanbulspor score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Giresunspor's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Giresunspor score1.33

Attack: Giresunspor score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–19.8%1–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.