Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 17

VfB Stuttgart–Eintracht Frankfurt

3–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 13 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Eintracht FrankfurtRasmus Kristensen (assist: R. Doan)
27'VfB StuttgartE. Demirović
35'VfB StuttgartD. Undav (assist: J. Vagnoman)
80'Eintracht FrankfurtA. Amaimouni (assist: M. Dahoud)
87'VfB StuttgartN. Nartey (assist: J. Vagnoman)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfB Stuttgart		Eintracht Frankfurt
20	Shots	12
11	Shots on target	5
15	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	8
10	Corners	2
6	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
479	Passes	348
395	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart 1.98 · Eintracht Frankfurt 1.43. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots VfB Stuttgart 20 · Eintracht Frankfurt 12; on target 11 and 5.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany→

3.57

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.9%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.13 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.24 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (1X — VfB Stuttgart win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,060 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfB Stuttgart to win57.9%

Draw22.0%

Eintracht Frankfurt to win20.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time34.5%

Level at half-time37.3%

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time28.2%

First-half double chance

1X — VfB Stuttgart ahead or level71.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or Eintracht Frankfurt ahead65.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1060 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfB Stuttgart: at least 9Actual: 8
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

VfB Stuttgart: at least 4Actual: 10
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.98

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score1.43

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.7%1–110.1%2–07.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.