Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 16

Bayern München–VfL Wolfsburg

8–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 January 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Bayern MünchenK. Fischer (own goal)
13'VfL WolfsburgD. Pejčinović (assist: L. Majer)
30'Bayern MünchenL. Díaz (assist: M. Olise)
50'Bayern MünchenM. Olise (assist: K. Laimer)
53'Bayern MünchenM. Jenz (own goal)
68'Bayern MünchenR. Guerreiro

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayern München		VfL Wolfsburg
16	Shots	8
10	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
68%	Possession	32%
714	Passes	340
656	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayern München 3.16 · VfL Wolfsburg 0.57. On the pitch: 8-1.
Shots Bayern München 16 · VfL Wolfsburg 8; on target 10 and 3.
Bayern München kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Tobias Reichel, Germany→

3.86

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 85.6%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.32 for Bayern München, 0.82 for VfL Wolfsburg.
The highest double chance value is 95.4% (1X — Bayern München win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,059 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayern München to win85.6%

Draw9.8%

VfL Wolfsburg to win4.6%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

69'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (assist: L. Díaz)

76'Bayern MünchenM. Olise (assist: L. Díaz)

88'Bayern MünchenL. Goretzka (assist: J. Tah)

7	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bayern München win or draw95.4%

12 — any result other than a draw90.2%

X2 — draw or VfL Wolfsburg win14.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (9.8%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Bayern München lead at half-time64.9%

Level at half-time28.4%

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time6.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Bayern München ahead or level93.3%

12 — not level at half-time71.6%

X2 — level or VfL Wolfsburg ahead35.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1059 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bayern München: at least 9Actual: 7
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

Bayern München: at least 7Actual: 6
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals79.9%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 131 of 170 predictions were correct (77.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 61.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayern München score3.16

Attack: Bayern München score 83% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score0.57

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–010.0%3–18.8%2–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1059 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 117 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.