Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 16

Borussia Mönchengladbach–FC Augsburg

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Borussia-Park, Monchengladbach

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Borussia MönchengladbachJ. Scally (assist: L. Netz)
20'Borussia MönchengladbachK. Diks (penalty)
36'Borussia MönchengladbachH. Tabakovic (assist: L. Netz)
61'Borussia MönchengladbachH. Tabakovic (assist: F. Honorat)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Mönchengladbach		FC Augsburg
12	Shots	17
7	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
563	Passes	512
485	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.73 · FC Augsburg 1.23. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Borussia Mönchengladbach 12 · FC Augsburg 17; on target 7 and 2.

Referee

Harm Osmers, Germany→

4.75

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.8%: “Borussia Mönchengladbach to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.13 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (1X — Borussia Mönchengladbach win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,058 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win49.8%

Draw26.0%

FC Augsburg to win24.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time34.2%

Level at half-time39.8%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time25.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead or level74.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead65.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1058 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 10Actual: 16
FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 5Actual: 2
FC Augsburg: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.73

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.23

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.6%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.