Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 16

Union Berlin–FSV Mainz 05

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'FSV Mainz 05N. Amiri (assist: Lee Jae-Sung)
69'FSV Mainz 05B. Hollerbach (assist: N. Veratschnig)
77'Union BerlinJeong Woo-Yeong (assist: D. Kohn)
86'Union BerlinM. LjubiÄiÄ

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union Berlin		FSV Mainz 05
17	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	6
14	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
481	Passes	374
352	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union Berlin 1.51 · FSV Mainz 05 1.29. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Union Berlin 17 · FSV Mainz 05 9; on target 5 and 6.
Union Berlin kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Bastian Dankert, Germany→

3.17

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.7%: “Union Berlin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Union Berlin, 0.99 for FSV Mainz 05.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (1X — Union Berlin win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,054 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union Berlin to win45.7%

Draw28.9%

FSV Mainz 05 to win25.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Union Berlin lead at half-time31.8%

Level at half-time41.0%

FSV Mainz 05 lead at half-time27.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Union Berlin ahead or level72.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or FSV Mainz 05 ahead68.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1054 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 9
FSV Mainz 05: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Union Berlin: at least 4Actual: 2
FSV Mainz 05: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union Berlin score1.51

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.29

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–012.0%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.