Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 16

1. FC Heidenheim–1. FC Köln

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'1. FC HeidenheimM. Pieringer (assist: J. Schöppner)
18'1. FC KölnE. Martel (assist: A. Castro-Montes)
26'1. FC HeidenheimJ. Niehues
48'1. FC KölnS. El Mala (assist: A. Castro-Montes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		1. FC Köln
14	Shots	21
6	Shots on target	9
10	Shots inside the box	13
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
489	Passes	381
397	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.48 · 1. FC Köln 1.61. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 14 · 1. FC Köln 21; on target 6 and 9.
1. FC Heidenheim kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Robert Schröder, Germany→

5.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “1. FC Köln to win”. Second comes “1. FC Heidenheim to win” at 34.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1.45 for 1. FC Köln.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,054 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win34.8%

Draw27.1%

1. FC Köln to win38.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time19.0%

Level at half-time43.0%

1. FC Köln lead at half-time38.0%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level62.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or 1. FC Köln ahead81.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1054 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 10Actual: 9
1. FC Köln: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 6Actual: 5
1. FC Köln: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.48

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Köln score1.61

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–29.3%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.