Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 16

SC Freiburg–Hamburger SV

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'Hamburger SVL. Vušković (assist: M. Muheim)
51'Hamburger SVDaniel Elfadli · red card
53'SC FreiburgV. Grifo (penalty)
83'SC FreiburgI. Matanović (assist: J. Beste)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Freiburg		Hamburger SV
20	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	5
14	Shots inside the box	5
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
0	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
514	Passes	341
429	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Freiburg 1.81 · Hamburger SV 1.22. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots SC Freiburg 20 · Hamburger SV 10; on target 7 and 5.
SC Freiburg kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Timo Gerach, Germany→

4.80

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.3%: “SC Freiburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for SC Freiburg, 0.98 for Hamburger SV.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (1X — SC Freiburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,054 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Freiburg to win54.3%

Draw25.6%

Hamburger SV to win20.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

SC Freiburg lead at half-time41.2%

Level at half-time39.4%

Hamburger SV lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Freiburg ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Hamburger SV ahead58.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1054 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Freiburg: at least 10Actual: 13
Hamburger SV: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

SC Freiburg: at least 4
Hamburger SV: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.81

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.22

Attack: Hamburger SV score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–010.8%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.