Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 16

Eintracht Frankfurt–Borussia Dortmund

3–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 9 January 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Borussia DortmundM. Beier (assist: J. Ryerson)
22'Eintracht FrankfurtC. Uzun (penalty)
68'Borussia DortmundF. Nmecha
71'Eintracht FrankfurtY. Ebnoutalib (assist: A. Kalimuendo)
90'Eintracht FrankfurtM. Dahoud
90'Borussia DortmundC. Chukwuemeka

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Frankfurt		Borussia Dortmund
12	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
40%	Possession	60%
368	Passes	550
284	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.44 · Borussia Dortmund 1.69. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Eintracht Frankfurt 12 · Borussia Dortmund 16; on target 6 and 6.
Borussia Dortmund kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Daniel Schlager, Germany→

4.20

yellows per match

0.47

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.4%: “Borussia Dortmund to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Frankfurt to win” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.72 for Borussia Dortmund.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,053 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Frankfurt to win28.1%

Draw25.5%

Borussia Dortmund to win46.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time20.1%

Level at half-time37.7%

Borussia Dortmund lead at half-time42.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Frankfurt ahead or level57.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.3%

X2 — level or Borussia Dortmund ahead79.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1053 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 9Actual: 14
Borussia Dortmund: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 4Actual: 2
Borussia Dortmund: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score1.44

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score1.69

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–210.3%2–17.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.