Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 15

1. FC Heidenheim–Bayern München

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 December 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Bayern MünchenJ. Stanišić (assist: J. Tah)
32'Bayern MünchenM. Olise (assist: H. Ito)
86'Bayern MünchenL. Díaz (assist: J. Stanišić)
90'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (assist: S. Gnabry)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		Bayern München
7	Shots	23
1	Shots on target	11
5	Shots inside the box	14
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
0	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
26%	Possession	74%
267	Passes	778
200	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 0.64 · Bayern München 2.90. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 7 · Bayern München 23; on target 1 and 11.
Bayern München kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

Florian Badstubner, Germany→

3.14

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 82.3%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.85 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 3.07 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 94.1% (X2 — draw or Bayern München win).
These values were computed from 1,052 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win5.9%

Draw11.8%

Bayern München to win82.3%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time0.9%

Level at half-time21.4%

Bayern München lead at half-time77.8%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level22.2%

12 — not level at half-time78.6%

X2 — level or Bayern München ahead99.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1052 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 9Actual: 8
Bayern München: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 4
Bayern München: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score0.64

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayern München score2.90

Attack: Bayern München score 82% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.90 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–39.9%0–29.4%1–39.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.