Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 15

RB Leipzig–Bayer Leverkusen

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'RB LeipzigX. Schlager (assist: C. Baumgartner)
40'Bayer LeverkusenMartin Terrier (assist: Arthur)
44'Bayer LeverkusenPatrik Schick (assist: N. Tella)
90'Bayer LeverkusenM. Culbreath

Match statistics

Match statistics
RB Leipzig		Bayer Leverkusen
19	Shots	15
7	Shots on target	8
13	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	6
2	Corners	8
1	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
474	Passes	608
402	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RB Leipzig 1.54 · Bayer Leverkusen 1.59. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots RB Leipzig 19 · Bayer Leverkusen 15; on target 7 and 8.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Benjamin Brand, Germany→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.4%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “Bayer Leverkusen to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for RB Leipzig, 1.47 for Bayer Leverkusen.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,050 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RB Leipzig to win46.4%

Draw24.3%

Bayer Leverkusen to win29.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

RB Leipzig lead at half-time35.8%

Level at half-time37.3%

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time26.9%

First-half double chance

1X — RB Leipzig ahead or level73.1%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or Bayer Leverkusen ahead64.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1050 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RB Leipzig: at least 10Actual: 10
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 8Actual: 12

Corners

RB Leipzig: at least 5Actual: 2
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RB Leipzig score1.54

Attack: RB Leipzig score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.59

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%2–110.0%1–27.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.