Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 15

1. FC Köln–Union Berlin

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

82'1. FC KölnR. van den Berg · red card
90'Union BerlinA. Schäfer

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Köln		Union Berlin
13	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
62%	Possession	38%
524	Passes	306
452	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Köln 1.63 · Union Berlin 1.31. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots 1. FC Köln 13 · Union Berlin 11; on target 2 and 3.
1. FC Köln kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Christian Dingert, Germany→

3.80

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “1. FC Köln to win”. Second comes “Union Berlin to win” at 33.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for 1. FC Köln, 1.21 for Union Berlin.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,045 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Köln to win37.6%

Draw29.1%

Union Berlin to win33.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Köln lead at half-time29.3%

Level at half-time42.2%

Union Berlin lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Köln ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Union Berlin ahead70.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1045 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Köln: at least 9Actual: 9
Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

1. FC Köln: at least 4Actual: 3
Union Berlin: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Köln score1.63

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union Berlin score1.31

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–09.7%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.