Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 15

FC Augsburg–Werder Bremen

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Augsburg		Werder Bremen
14	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	0
11	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	11
2	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
444	Passes	393
360	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Augsburg 1.50 · Werder Bremen 1.49. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots FC Augsburg 14 · Werder Bremen 9; on target 6 and 0.

Referee

Tobias Welz, Germany→

4.50

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “FC Augsburg to win”. Second comes “Werder Bremen to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for FC Augsburg, 1.27 for Werder Bremen.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,045 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Augsburg to win43.1%

Draw26.9%

Werder Bremen to win30.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	20

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Augsburg lead at half-time30.7%

Level at half-time39.9%

Werder Bremen lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Augsburg ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Werder Bremen ahead69.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1045 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Augsburg: at least 11Actual: 10
Werder Bremen: at least 9Actual: 20

Corners

FC Augsburg: at least 5Actual: 6
Werder Bremen: at least 3Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.50

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.49

Attack: Werder Bremen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.0%1–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.