Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 15

VfL Wolfsburg–SC Freiburg

3–4

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'SC FreiburgP. Treu (assist: Y. Suzuki)
13'VfL WolfsburgD. Pejčinović (assist: P. Wimmer)
49'VfL WolfsburgD. Pejčinović
56'SC FreiburgV. Grifo (penalty)
69'VfL WolfsburgD. Pejčinović (assist: P. Wimmer)
71'SC FreiburgJ. Seelt (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Wolfsburg		SC Freiburg
13	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	8
9	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	5
56%	Possession	44%
477	Passes	371
389	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Wolfsburg 1.54 · SC Freiburg 1.49. On the pitch: 3-4.
Shots VfL Wolfsburg 13 · SC Freiburg 15; on target 6 and 8.
VfL Wolfsburg kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Sascha Stegemann, Germany→

3.82

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “VfL Wolfsburg to win”. Second comes “SC Freiburg to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for VfL Wolfsburg, 1.30 for SC Freiburg.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,045 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Wolfsburg to win39.2%

Draw27.7%

SC Freiburg to win33.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time32.4%

Level at half-time39.3%

SC Freiburg lead at half-time28.3%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Wolfsburg ahead or level71.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or SC Freiburg ahead67.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1045 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 10Actual: 16
SC Freiburg: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 4Actual: 2
SC Freiburg: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.54

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.49

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–19.5%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.