Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 14

Werder Bremen–VfB Stuttgart

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Weserstadion, Bremen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'VfB StuttgartB. El Khannouss (assist: J. Leweling)
44'VfB StuttgartJ. Leweling (assist: Finn Jeltsch)
59'Werder BremenAbdoul Karim Coulibaly · red card
79'VfB StuttgartD. Undav (assist: J. Leweling)
90'VfB StuttgartC. Fuhrich (assist: M. Mittelstädt)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Werder Bremen		VfB Stuttgart
9	Shots	24
3	Shots on target	12
6	Shots inside the box	18
8	Goalkeeper saves	3
0	Corners	9
0	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
351	Passes	605
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Werder Bremen 1.58 · VfB Stuttgart 1.73. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Werder Bremen 9 · VfB Stuttgart 24; on target 3 and 12.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Robert Hartmann, Germany→

5.00

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.0%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “Werder Bremen to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Werder Bremen, 1.65 for VfB Stuttgart.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,043 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Werder Bremen to win33.4%

Draw25.6%

VfB Stuttgart to win41.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Werder Bremen lead at half-time30.3%

Level at half-time39.8%

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time29.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Werder Bremen ahead or level70.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or VfB Stuttgart ahead69.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1043 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Werder Bremen: at least 10Actual: 11
VfB Stuttgart: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Werder Bremen: at least 4
VfB Stuttgart: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.58

Attack: Werder Bremen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.73

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%1–29.6%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.