Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 14

FC St. Pauli–1. FC Heidenheim

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'FC St. PauliM. Kaars (assist: J. Fujita)
45'FC St. PauliE. Smith · red card
53'FC St. PauliM. Kaars (assist: J. Fujita)
64'1. FC HeidenheimM. Pieringer (assist: S. Schimmer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		1. FC Heidenheim
8	Shots	20
5	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	14
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	11
0	Offsides	5
36%	Possession	64%
347	Passes	594
249	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 1.47 · 1. FC Heidenheim 1.20. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC St. Pauli 8 · 1. FC Heidenheim 20; on target 5 and 7.
1. FC Heidenheim kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Sören Storks, Germany→

6.20

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “FC St. Pauli to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for FC St. Pauli, 0.90 for 1. FC Heidenheim.
The highest double chance value is 79.0% (1X — FC St. Pauli win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,036 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win51.4%

Draw27.7%

1. FC Heidenheim to win21.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time36.9%

Level at half-time43.3%

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time19.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level80.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or 1. FC Heidenheim ahead63.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1036 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 10Actual: 6
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 5Actual: 4
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 3Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.47

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.20

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–012.8%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.