Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 14

Eintracht Frankfurt–FC Augsburg

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

68'Eintracht FrankfurtR. Doan (assist: O. Hojlund)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Frankfurt		FC Augsburg
11	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	12
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	6
3	Offsides	5
51%	Possession	49%
475	Passes	442
394	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.17 · FC Augsburg 1.11. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Eintracht Frankfurt 11 · FC Augsburg 12; on target 4 and 1.

Referee

Frank Willenborg, Germany→

3.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.0%: “Eintracht Frankfurt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.08 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 77.6% (1X — Eintracht Frankfurt win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,036 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Frankfurt to win52.0%

Draw25.6%

FC Augsburg to win22.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time53.3%

Level at half-time33.1%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time13.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Frankfurt ahead or level86.4%

12 — not level at half-time66.9%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead46.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1036 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 10Actual: 14
FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 5Actual: 2
FC Augsburg: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score2.17

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.11

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.7%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.