Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 14

Union Berlin–RB Leipzig

3–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 12 December 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'Union BerlinO. Burke (assist: Jeong Woo-Yeong)
60'RB LeipzigT. Gomis (assist: C. Harder)
63'Union BerlinI. Ansah (assist: C. Trimmel)
90'Union BerlinT. Skarke (assist: A. Ilic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union Berlin		RB Leipzig
12	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
37%	Possession	63%
311	Passes	558
210	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union Berlin 1.24 · RB Leipzig 1.71. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Union Berlin 12 · RB Leipzig 9; on target 6 and 3.
RB Leipzig kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Daniel Schlager, Germany→

4.21

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.8%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “Union Berlin to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Union Berlin, 1.40 for RB Leipzig.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,035 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union Berlin to win30.9%

Draw28.3%

RB Leipzig to win40.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Union Berlin lead at half-time16.9%

Level at half-time36.5%

RB Leipzig lead at half-time46.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Union Berlin ahead or level53.3%

12 — not level at half-time63.5%

X2 — level or RB Leipzig ahead83.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1035 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 7
RB Leipzig: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

Union Berlin: at least 5Actual: 4
RB Leipzig: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union Berlin score1.24

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RB Leipzig score1.71

Attack: RB Leipzig score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–29.6%0–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.