Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 13

Borussia Dortmund–1899 Hoffenheim

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'Borussia DortmundJ. Brandt (assist: Yan Couto)
60'Borussia DortmundN. Schlotterbeck (assist: F. Nmecha)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Dortmund		1899 Hoffenheim
8	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
380	Passes	507
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Borussia Dortmund 2.24 · 1899 Hoffenheim 1.14. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Borussia Dortmund 8 · 1899 Hoffenheim 11; on target 4 and 3.
1899 Hoffenheim kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Florian Badstubner, Germany→

3.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.6%: “Borussia Dortmund to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.23 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.26 for 1899 Hoffenheim.
The highest double chance value is 80.8% (1X — Borussia Dortmund win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,034 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Borussia Dortmund to win59.6%

Draw21.2%

1899 Hoffenheim to win19.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,983 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Borussia Dortmund lead at half-time49.9%

Level at half-time34.9%

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time15.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Borussia Dortmund ahead or level84.8%

12 — not level at half-time65.1%

X2 — level or 1899 Hoffenheim ahead50.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1034 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Borussia Dortmund: at least 9Actual: 7
1899 Hoffenheim: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Borussia Dortmund: at least 6Actual: 7
1899 Hoffenheim: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score2.24

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.14

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.5%1–19.5%3–17.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.