Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 13

Hamburger SV–Werder Bremen

3–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Werder BremenJ. Stage (assist: Romano Schmid)
63'Hamburger SVA. Sambi Lokonga
75'Hamburger SVL. Vušković (assist: Fábio Vieira)
78'Werder BremenJ. Njinmah (assist: Romano Schmid)
84'Hamburger SVY. Poulsen (assist: M. Muheim)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hamburger SV		Werder Bremen
12	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
456	Passes	384
399	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hamburger SV 1.60 · Werder Bremen 1.43. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Hamburger SV 12 · Werder Bremen 10; on target 6 and 3.

Referee

Sascha Stegemann, Germany→

3.40

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.3%: “Hamburger SV to win”. Second comes “Werder Bremen to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Hamburger SV, 1.35 for Werder Bremen.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,033 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hamburger SV to win40.3%

Draw26.9%

Werder Bremen to win32.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hamburger SV lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time42.0%

Werder Bremen lead at half-time29.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Hamburger SV ahead or level70.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Werder Bremen ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1033 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hamburger SV: at least 11Actual: 8
Werder Bremen: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Hamburger SV: at least 5Actual: 5
Werder Bremen: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.60

Attack: Hamburger SV score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.43

Attack: Werder Bremen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.