Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 13

1. FC Heidenheim–SC Freiburg

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'SC FreiburgJ. Manzambi (assist: P. Treu)
59'1. FC HeidenheimP. Mainka (assist: M. Busch)
90'1. FC HeidenheimS. Schimmer

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		SC Freiburg
16	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
8	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
39%	Possession	61%
282	Passes	456
206	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.22 · SC Freiburg 1.74. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 16 · SC Freiburg 16; on target 3 and 2.
SC Freiburg kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Florian Exner, Germany→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.4%: “SC Freiburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.91 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1.60 for SC Freiburg.
The highest double chance value is 80.0% (X2 — draw or SC Freiburg win).
These values were computed from 1,027 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win20.0%

Draw26.7%

SC Freiburg to win53.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time16.1%

Level at half-time38.3%

SC Freiburg lead at half-time45.6%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level54.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or SC Freiburg ahead83.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1027 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 11Actual: 11
SC Freiburg: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 4Actual: 8
SC Freiburg: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.22

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.74

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%0–112.3%0–210.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.