Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 13

FSV Mainz 05–Borussia Mönchengladbach

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 5 December 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'Borussia MönchengladbachD. da Costa (own goal · assist: H. Tabakovic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FSV Mainz 05		Borussia Mönchengladbach
8	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
525	Passes	425
422	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FSV Mainz 05 1.70 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.49. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots FSV Mainz 05 8 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 14; on target 2 and 5.
FSV Mainz 05 kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Benjamin Brand, Germany→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Borussia Mönchengladbach to win”. Second comes “FSV Mainz 05 to win” at 35.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.46 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,026 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FSV Mainz 05 to win35.6%

Draw26.9%

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win37.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	4

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FSV Mainz 05 lead at half-time28.5%

Level at half-time39.8%

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time31.7%

First-half double chance

1X — FSV Mainz 05 ahead or level68.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead71.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1026 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FSV Mainz 05: at least 11Actual: 12
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 10Actual: 4

Corners

FSV Mainz 05: at least 5Actual: 8
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.70

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.49

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–29.3%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.