Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 12

Union Berlin–1. FC Heidenheim

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 15%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'Union BerlinR. Khedira (assist: I. Ansah)
90'1. FC HeidenheimS. Schimmer (assist: O. H. Traore)
90'1. FC HeidenheimJ. Schöppner (assist: A. Ibrahimović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union Berlin		1. FC Heidenheim
9	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
330	Passes	451
237	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union Berlin 1.66 · 1. FC Heidenheim 1.16. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Union Berlin 9 · 1. FC Heidenheim 10; on target 2 and 2.
1. FC Heidenheim kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Patrick Ittrich, Germany→

3.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.5%: “Union Berlin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Union Berlin, 0.77 for 1. FC Heidenheim.
The highest double chance value is 85.1% (1X — Union Berlin win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,018 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union Berlin to win60.5%

Draw24.6%

1. FC Heidenheim to win14.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Union Berlin lead at half-time45.9%

Level at half-time38.3%

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time15.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Union Berlin ahead or level84.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or 1. FC Heidenheim ahead54.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1018 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 13
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Union Berlin: at least 4Actual: 5
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union Berlin score1.66

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.16

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.5%2–012.6%1–112.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.