Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 12

Borussia Mönchengladbach–RB Leipzig

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 28 November 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Borussia-Park, Monchengladbach

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Mönchengladbach		RB Leipzig
7	Shots	20
0	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	6
5	Offsides	4
42%	Possession	58%
402	Passes	568
317	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.55 · RB Leipzig 1.82. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 · RB Leipzig 20; on target 0 and 4.
RB Leipzig kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Timo Gerach, Germany→

5.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.9%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “Borussia Mönchengladbach to win” at 33.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.77 for RB Leipzig.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,017 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win33.5%

Draw24.6%

RB Leipzig to win41.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time19.2%

Level at half-time36.6%

RB Leipzig lead at half-time44.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead or level55.8%

12 — not level at half-time63.4%

X2 — level or RB Leipzig ahead80.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1017 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 9Actual: 9
RB Leipzig: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 5Actual: 5
RB Leipzig: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.55

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RB Leipzig score1.82

Attack: RB Leipzig score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%1–29.5%2–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.