Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 11

RB Leipzig–Werder Bremen

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'RB LeipzigA. Ouedraogo (assist: R. Baku)
80'RB LeipzigX. Schlager (assist: C. Baumgartner)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RB Leipzig		Werder Bremen
22	Shots	15
13	Shots on target	6
15	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	10
13	Corners	7
1	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
519	Passes	479
461	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RB Leipzig 1.99 · Werder Bremen 1.35. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots RB Leipzig 22 · Werder Bremen 15; on target 13 and 6.

Referee

Martin Petersen, Germany→

5.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.5%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.41 for RB Leipzig, 1.25 for Werder Bremen.
The highest double chance value is 83.2% (1X — RB Leipzig win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,015 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RB Leipzig to win63.5%

Draw19.6%

Werder Bremen to win16.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

RB Leipzig lead at half-time53.0%

Level at half-time33.7%

Werder Bremen lead at half-time13.4%

First-half double chance

1X — RB Leipzig ahead or level86.6%

12 — not level at half-time66.3%

X2 — level or Werder Bremen ahead47.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1015 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RB Leipzig: at least 10Actual: 5
Werder Bremen: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

RB Leipzig: at least 5Actual: 13
Werder Bremen: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RB Leipzig score1.99

Attack: RB Leipzig score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.35

Attack: Werder Bremen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.3%1–18.5%3–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.