Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 11

FC Augsburg–Hamburger SV

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

76'FC AugsburgA. Kade (assist: D. Giannoulis)
81'FC AugsburgK. Schlotterbeck · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Augsburg		Hamburger SV
13	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	7
48%	Possession	52%
417	Passes	453
356	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Augsburg 1.43 · Hamburger SV 1.50. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Augsburg 13 · Hamburger SV 15; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

Robin Braun, Germany→

5.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “FC Augsburg to win”. Second comes “Hamburger SV to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for FC Augsburg, 1.36 for Hamburger SV.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,009 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Augsburg to win39.1%

Draw27.1%

Hamburger SV to win33.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Augsburg lead at half-time33.7%

Level at half-time40.1%

Hamburger SV lead at half-time26.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Augsburg ahead or level73.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Hamburger SV ahead66.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1009 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Augsburg: at least 11Actual: 13
Hamburger SV: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

FC Augsburg: at least 4Actual: 4
Hamburger SV: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.43

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.50

Attack: Hamburger SV score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–19.5%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.