Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 10

1899 Hoffenheim–RB Leipzig

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'RB LeipzigY. Diomande (assist: A. Ouedraogo)
20'1899 HoffenheimA. Hajdari (assist: W. Burger)
38'1899 HoffenheimT. Lemperle (assist: V. Coufal)
79'1899 HoffenheimG. Prömel (assist: F. Asllani)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1899 Hoffenheim		RB Leipzig
12	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
4	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
457	Passes	469
361	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.55 · RB Leipzig 1.82. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots 1899 Hoffenheim 12 · RB Leipzig 17; on target 4 and 5.

Referee

Patrick Ittrich, Germany→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “1899 Hoffenheim to win” at 35.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1.79 for RB Leipzig.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,000 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1899 Hoffenheim to win35.2%

Draw24.3%

RB Leipzig to win40.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	5

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time14.6%

Level at half-time33.5%

RB Leipzig lead at half-time51.9%

First-half double chance

1X — 1899 Hoffenheim ahead or level48.1%

12 — not level at half-time66.5%

X2 — level or RB Leipzig ahead85.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1000 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 11Actual: 13
RB Leipzig: at least 10Actual: 5

Corners

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 5Actual: 5
RB Leipzig: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.55

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RB Leipzig score1.82

Attack: RB Leipzig score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.6%1–29.2%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.