Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 9

Bayern München–Bayer Leverkusen

3–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Bayern MünchenS. Gnabry (assist: T. Bischof)
31'Bayern MünchenN. Jackson (assist: K. Laimer)
43'Bayern MünchenLoïc Badé (own goal · assist: R. Guerreiro)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayern München		Bayer Leverkusen
18	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
672	Passes	466
607	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayern München 2.14 · Bayer Leverkusen 1.03. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Bayern München 18 · Bayer Leverkusen 7; on target 4 and 1.
Bayern München kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Deniz Aytekin, Germany→

6.25

yellows per match

0.75

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.9%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.68 for Bayern München, 0.90 for Bayer Leverkusen.
The highest double chance value is 91.2% (1X — Bayern München win or draw).
These values were computed from 996 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayern München to win75.9%

Draw15.3%

Bayer Leverkusen to win8.8%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	3

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Bayern München lead at half-time48.3%

Level at half-time36.1%

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time15.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Bayern München ahead or level84.4%

12 — not level at half-time63.9%

X2 — level or Bayer Leverkusen ahead51.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 996 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bayern München: at least 9Actual: 11
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 9Actual: 3

Corners

Bayern München: at least 5Actual: 10
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayern München score2.14

Attack: Bayern München score 73% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.14 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.03

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.1%2–19.9%3–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.