Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 9

1. FC Heidenheim–Eintracht Frankfurt

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'1. FC HeidenheimB. Zivzivadze (assist: A. Ibrahimović)
55'Eintracht FrankfurtRasmus Kristensen (assist: N. Brown)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		Eintracht Frankfurt
9	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	8
1	Offsides	2
28%	Possession	72%
268	Passes	698
185	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.23 · Eintracht Frankfurt 2.06. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 9 · Eintracht Frankfurt 16; on target 4 and 3.
Eintracht Frankfurt kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

Christian Dingert, Germany→

5.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.7%: “Eintracht Frankfurt to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1.95 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (X2 — draw or Eintracht Frankfurt win).
These values were computed from 991 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win22.7%

Draw23.6%

Eintracht Frankfurt to win53.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time8.5%

Level at half-time31.3%

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time60.2%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level39.8%

12 — not level at half-time68.7%

X2 — level or Eintracht Frankfurt ahead91.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 991 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 9Actual: 7
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 4Actual: 2
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.23

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score2.06

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%1–210.7%0–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.