Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 7

1. FC Köln–FC Augsburg

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'FC AugsburgF. Rieder (penalty)
76'1. FC KölnS. El Mala (assist: M. Bülter)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Köln		FC Augsburg
9	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	2
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	2
6	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
487	Passes	390
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Köln 1.82 · FC Augsburg 1.28. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots 1. FC Köln 9 · FC Augsburg 10; on target 2 and 4.
1. FC Köln kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Timo Gerach, Germany→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “1. FC Köln to win”. Second comes “FC Augsburg to win” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for 1. FC Köln, 1.34 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 973 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Köln to win48.1%

Draw24.8%

FC Augsburg to win27.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Köln lead at half-time31.8%

Level at half-time39.2%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time29.0%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Köln ahead or level71.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead68.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 973 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Köln: at least 10Actual: 10
FC Augsburg: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

1. FC Köln: at least 5Actual: 5
FC Augsburg: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Köln score1.82

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.28

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.4%1–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.