Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 5

VfL Wolfsburg–RB Leipzig

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'RB LeipzigJ. Bakayoko (assist: Romulo Cardoso)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Wolfsburg		RB Leipzig
22	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	6
17	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	11
0	Offsides	5
51%	Possession	49%
447	Passes	435
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Wolfsburg 1.53 · RB Leipzig 1.58. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots VfL Wolfsburg 22 · RB Leipzig 20; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

Robin Braun, Germany→

7.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “VfL Wolfsburg to win” at 36.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for VfL Wolfsburg, 1.66 for RB Leipzig.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 955 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Wolfsburg to win36.6%

Draw25.1%

RB Leipzig to win38.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time21.1%

Level at half-time37.8%

RB Leipzig lead at half-time41.1%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Wolfsburg ahead or level58.9%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or RB Leipzig ahead78.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 955 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 9Actual: 7
RB Leipzig: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 4Actual: 6
RB Leipzig: at least 4Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.53

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RB Leipzig score1.58

Attack: RB Leipzig score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%1–29.2%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.