Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 5

Bayern München–Werder Bremen

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 26 September 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Bayern MünchenJ. Tah (assist: M. Olise)
45'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (penalty)
65'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (assist: L. Díaz)
87'Bayern MünchenK. Laimer (assist: T. Bischof)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayern München		Werder Bremen
26	Shots	9
13	Shots on target	3
17	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	8
7	Corners	6
0	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
664	Passes	451
587	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayern München 2.82 · Werder Bremen 0.80. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Bayern München 26 · Werder Bremen 9; on target 13 and 3.
Bayern München kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Frank Willenborg, Germany→

7.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 87.0%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.42 for Bayern München, 0.79 for Werder Bremen.
The highest double chance value is 96.0% (1X — Bayern München win or draw).
These values were computed from 954 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayern München to win87.0%

Draw9.0%

Werder Bremen to win4.0%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	4

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Bayern München lead at half-time68.3%

Level at half-time26.5%

Werder Bremen lead at half-time5.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Bayern München ahead or level94.8%

12 — not level at half-time73.5%

X2 — level or Werder Bremen ahead31.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 954 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bayern München: at least 9Actual: 9
Werder Bremen: at least 10Actual: 4

Corners

Bayern München: at least 6Actual: 7
Werder Bremen: at least 2Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayern München score2.82

Attack: Bayern München score 67% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Werder Bremen score0.80

Attack: Werder Bremen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–010.2%4–08.7%3–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.