Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 34

Nantes–Toulouse

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Technical loss

The match was not played; the result was awarded. With no result produced on the pitch, it is not used to train the model.

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What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nantes 1.23 · Toulouse 1.28. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

S. Frappart→

3.66

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.9%: “Toulouse to win”. Second comes “Nantes to win” at 33.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Nantes, 1.44 for Toulouse.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,289 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nantes to win33.7%

Draw27.4%

Toulouse to win38.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Nantes win or draw61.1%

12 — any result other than a draw72.6%

X2 — draw or Toulouse win66.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Nantes lead at half-time25.9%

Level at half-time42.9%

Toulouse lead at half-time31.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Nantes ahead or level68.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Toulouse ahead74.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1289 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nantes: at least 11
Toulouse: at least 13

Corners

Nantes: at least 4
Toulouse: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nantes score1.23

Attack: Nantes score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Toulouse's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Toulouse score1.28

Attack: Toulouse score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nantes's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–29.4%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.