Ligue 1 · France · Final

Nice–Saint Etienne

4–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 29 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Allianz Riviera, Nice

Goals and red cards

62'NiceJ. Clauss
79'Saint EtienneZ. Davitashvili (penalty)
81'NiceKaïl Boudache
87'NiceE. Wahi (assist: T. Louchet)
90'NiceE. Wahi (assist: S. Diop)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nice		Saint Etienne
20	Shots	13
10	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
421	Passes	388
361	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nice 2.11 · Saint Etienne 1.05. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Nice 20 · Saint Etienne 13; on target 10 and 2.

Referee

R. Buquet→

3.70

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.9%: “Nice to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for Nice, 1.05 for Saint Etienne.
The highest double chance value is 83.5% (1X — Nice win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,297 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nice to win61.9%

Draw21.6%

Saint Etienne to win16.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	5

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Nice lead at half-time40.8%

Level at half-time38.5%

Saint Etienne lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Nice ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Saint Etienne ahead59.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1297 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nice: at least 11Actual: 10
Saint Etienne: at least 11Actual: 5

Corners

Nice: at least 5Actual: 6
Saint Etienne: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nice score2.11

Attack: Nice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Saint Etienne concede 48% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Saint Etienne score1.05

Attack: Saint Etienne score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nice's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.5%2–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.