Ligue 1 · France · Final

Saint Etienne–Nice

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 26 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne

Match statistics

Match statistics
Saint Etienne		Nice
7	Shots	4
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
367	Passes	450
303	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Saint Etienne 1.35 · Nice 1.73. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Saint Etienne 7 · Nice 4; on target 0 and 0.
Nice kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

B. Bastien→

4.04

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

102

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.0%: “Nice to win”. Second comes “Saint Etienne to win” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Saint Etienne, 1.73 for Nice.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,297 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Saint Etienne to win28.7%

Draw25.4%

Nice to win46.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Saint Etienne win or draw54.0%

12 — any result other than a draw74.6%

X2 — draw or Nice win71.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Saint Etienne lead at half-time25.9%

Level at half-time39.4%

Nice lead at half-time34.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Saint Etienne ahead or level65.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Nice ahead74.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1297 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Saint Etienne: at least 11Actual: 10
Nice: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Saint Etienne: at least 5Actual: 6
Nice: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Saint Etienne score1.35

Attack: Saint Etienne score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nice's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nice score1.73

Attack: Nice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Saint Etienne concede 48% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–210.2%2–17.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.