Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 34

Paris FC–Paris Saint Germain

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'Paris Saint GermainB. Barcola (assist: Fabián Ruiz)
76'Paris FCA. Gory (assist: P. Lees-Melou)
90'Paris FCA. Gory (assist: L. Koleosho)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris FC		Paris Saint Germain
17	Shots	9
9	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
3	Corners	3
7	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
395	Passes	682
336	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris FC 0.94 · Paris Saint Germain 2.06. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Paris FC 17 · Paris Saint Germain 9; on target 9 and 2.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

G. Paradis→

4.04

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.9%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Paris FC, 2.39 for Paris Saint Germain.
The highest double chance value is 84.4% (X2 — draw or Paris Saint Germain win).
These values were computed from 1,289 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris FC to win15.6%

Draw19.5%

Paris Saint Germain to win64.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Paris FC lead at half-time18.8%

Level at half-time40.6%

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time40.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris FC ahead or level59.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Paris Saint Germain ahead81.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1289 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris FC: at least 9Actual: 8
Paris Saint Germain: at least 8Actual: 9

Corners

Paris FC: at least 3Actual: 3
Paris Saint Germain: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris FC score0.94

Attack: Paris FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.06

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Paris FC's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.5%1–18.7%1–38.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.