Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 34

Stade Brestois 29–Angers

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'Stade Brestois 29R. Del Castillo (assist: K. Doumbia)
60'AngersA. Sbaï (assist: G. Koyalipou)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stade Brestois 29		Angers
18	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
508	Passes	379
433	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stade Brestois 29 1.66 · Angers 0.98. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Stade Brestois 29 18 · Angers 8; on target 5 and 2.
Stade Brestois 29 kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

M. Vernice→

4.12

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “Stade Brestois 29 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.05 for Angers.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (1X — Stade Brestois 29 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,289 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stade Brestois 29 to win48.7%

Draw27.2%

Angers to win24.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Stade Brestois 29 lead at half-time46.6%

Level at half-time39.6%

Angers lead at half-time13.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Stade Brestois 29 ahead or level86.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Angers ahead53.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1289 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stade Brestois 29: at least 11Actual: 9
Angers: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Stade Brestois 29: at least 4Actual: 6
Angers: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score1.66

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Angers's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Angers score0.98

Attack: Angers score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–010.7%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.