Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 34

Lorient–Le Havre

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'Le HavreAbdoulaye Faye (own goal)
62'Le HavreIssa Soumaré (assist: S. Boufal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lorient		Le Havre
12	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
481	Passes	327
431	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lorient 1.71 · Le Havre 0.99. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Lorient 12 · Le Havre 7; on target 2 and 4.
Lorient kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

C. Turpin→

3.36

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

109

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Lorient to win”. Second comes “Le Havre to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Lorient, 1.28 for Le Havre.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,289 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lorient to win40.9%

Draw27.4%

Le Havre to win31.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Lorient lead at half-time44.7%

Level at half-time41.0%

Le Havre lead at half-time14.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Lorient ahead or level85.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Le Havre ahead55.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1289 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lorient: at least 10Actual: 11
Le Havre: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Lorient: at least 4Actual: 5
Le Havre: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lorient score1.71

Attack: Lorient score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Le Havre score0.99

Attack: Le Havre score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lorient's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–19.7%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.