Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 34

Strasbourg–Monaco

5–4

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'MonacoL. Camara
34'StrasbourgM. Godo (assist: J. Enciso)
42'MonacoL. Camara (assist: S. Adingra)
45'MonacoA. Fati (assist: A. Bamba)
55'MonacoI. Doukoure (own goal)
58'StrasbourgDiego Moreira (assist: J. Enciso)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Strasbourg		Monaco
15	Shots	21
7	Shots on target	8
9	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
384	Passes	568
319	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Strasbourg 1.56 · Monaco 1.47. On the pitch: 5-4.
Shots Strasbourg 15 · Monaco 21; on target 7 and 8.
Monaco kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

B. Bastien→

4.05

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

101

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.6%: “Monaco to win”. Second comes “Strasbourg to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Strasbourg, 2.08 for Monaco.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,289 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Strasbourg to win28.6%

Draw22.8%

Monaco to win48.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

61'StrasbourgS. Nanasi (assist: Diego Moreira)

72'StrasbourgS. Nanasi (assist: J. Enciso)

84'StrasbourgM. Godo (assist: Diego Moreira)

7	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 113 of 165 predictions were correct (68.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Strasbourg win or draw51.4%

12 — any result other than a draw77.2%

X2 — draw or Monaco win71.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–3

Strasbourg lead at half-time38.4%

Level at half-time41.8%

Monaco lead at half-time19.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Strasbourg ahead or level80.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Monaco ahead61.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1289 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Strasbourg: at least 10Actual: 7
Monaco: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Strasbourg: at least 4Actual: 4
Monaco: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals72.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 405 of 553 predictions were correct (73.2%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Strasbourg score1.56

Attack: Strasbourg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Monaco's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Monaco score1.47

Attack: Monaco score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Strasbourg's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–29.5%1–19.3%2–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1289 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 139 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.