Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 34

Nice–Metz

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Allianz Riviera, Nice

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 16%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nice		Metz
22	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
481	Passes	509
417	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nice 1.96 · Metz 0.99. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Nice 22 · Metz 16; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

J. Pignard→

4.36

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.9%: “Nice to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.49 for Nice, 0.81 for Metz.
The highest double chance value is 91.2% (1X — Nice win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,289 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nice to win74.9%

Draw16.4%

Metz to win8.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Nice win or draw91.2%

12 — any result other than a draw83.6%

X2 — draw or Metz win25.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Nice lead at half-time47.2%

Level at half-time37.4%

Metz lead at half-time15.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Nice ahead or level84.6%

12 — not level at half-time62.6%

X2 — level or Metz ahead52.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1289 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nice: at least 11Actual: 11
Metz: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Nice: at least 5Actual: 10
Metz: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals65.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nice score1.96

Attack: Nice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Metz concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Metz score0.99

Attack: Metz score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nice's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.7%2–110.2%3–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1289 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 67 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.