Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 34

Marseille–Rennes

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'MarseilleP. Højbjerg (assist: M. Greenwood)
10'MarseilleA. Gouiri
55'MarseilleP. Aubameyang (assist: P. Højbjerg)
84'RennesEsteban Lepaul (assist: Arnaud Nordin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Marseille		Rennes
27	Shots	27
11	Shots on target	6
19	Shots inside the box	20
4	Goalkeeper saves	8
4	Corners	11
2	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
399	Passes	463
329	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Marseille 1.89 · Rennes 1.29. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Marseille 27 · Rennes 27; on target 11 and 6.
Rennes kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

R. Buquet→

3.69

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.0%: “Marseille to win”. Second comes “Rennes to win” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.14 for Marseille, 1.51 for Rennes.
The highest double chance value is 77.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,289 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Marseille to win52.0%

Draw22.4%

Rennes to win25.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Marseille lead at half-time31.9%

Level at half-time42.4%

Rennes lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Marseille ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Rennes ahead68.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1289 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Marseille: at least 11Actual: 11
Rennes: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Marseille: at least 4Actual: 4
Rennes: at least 3Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Marseille score1.89

Attack: Marseille score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Rennes's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rennes score1.29

Attack: Rennes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Marseille's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.9%1–19.3%2–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.