Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 34

Lyon–Lens

0–4

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 17%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'LensW. Said (assist: K. Antonio)
32'LensW. Said (assist: A. Haidara)
45'LensF. Sotoca (assist: F. Thauvin)
53'LensF. Thauvin (assist: A. Bulatović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lyon		Lens
16	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
20	Corners	8
0	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
460	Passes	384
388	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lyon 1.53 · Lens 1.45. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Lyon 16 · Lens 14; on target 4 and 4.
Lyon kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

F. Letexier→

3.94

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

103

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.9%: “Lyon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.18 for Lyon, 1.11 for Lens.
The highest double chance value is 83.1% (1X — Lyon win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,289 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lyon to win61.9%

Draw21.2%

Lens to win16.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lyon win or draw83.1%

12 — any result other than a draw78.8%

X2 — draw or Lens win38.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–3

Lyon lead at half-time42.3%

Level at half-time41.0%

Lens lead at half-time16.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Lyon ahead or level83.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Lens ahead57.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1289 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lyon: at least 11Actual: 10
Lens: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Lyon: at least 4Actual: 20
Lens: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lyon score1.53

Attack: Lyon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lens's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lens score1.45

Attack: Lens score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.1%2–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1289 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 139 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.