Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 29

Lens–Paris Saint Germain

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 13 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'Paris Saint GermainK. Kvaratskhelia (assist: O. Dembele)
90'Paris Saint GermainI. Mbaye (assist: D. Doué)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lens		Paris Saint Germain
25	Shots	10
10	Shots on target	3
19	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
6	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
419	Passes	716
333	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lens 1.26 · Paris Saint Germain 1.70. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Lens 25 · Paris Saint Germain 10; on target 10 and 3.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

B. Bastien→

4.08

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

100

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.8%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “Lens to win” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Lens, 1.97 for Paris Saint Germain.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,288 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lens to win29.8%

Draw23.4%

Paris Saint Germain to win46.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	3

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Lens lead at half-time17.8%

Level at half-time39.9%

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time42.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Lens ahead or level57.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Paris Saint Germain ahead82.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1288 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lens: at least 10Actual: 9
Paris Saint Germain: at least 9Actual: 3

Corners

Lens: at least 4Actual: 6
Paris Saint Germain: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lens score1.26

Attack: Lens score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score1.70

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lens's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.0%1–29.7%2–27.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.