Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 29

Stade Brestois 29–Strasbourg

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 13 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'StrasbourgV. Barco (assist: S. Nanasi)
13'Stade Brestois 29L. Ajorque (assist: K. Lala)
20'StrasbourgS. Nanasi (assist: J. Enciso)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stade Brestois 29		Strasbourg
21	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	5
16	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	4
48%	Possession	52%
468	Passes	524
389	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stade Brestois 29 1.39 · Strasbourg 1.43. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Stade Brestois 29 21 · Strasbourg 10; on target 6 and 5.

Referee

B. Millot→

3.85

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.2%: “Strasbourg to win”. Second comes “Stade Brestois 29 to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.63 for Strasbourg.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,287 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stade Brestois 29 to win28.6%

Draw26.3%

Strasbourg to win45.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Stade Brestois 29 lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time41.1%

Strasbourg lead at half-time35.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Stade Brestois 29 ahead or level64.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Strasbourg ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1287 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stade Brestois 29: at least 12Actual: 10
Strasbourg: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Stade Brestois 29: at least 4Actual: 5
Strasbourg: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score1.39

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Strasbourg's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Strasbourg score1.43

Attack: Strasbourg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–210.2%0–18.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.