Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 33

Le Havre–Marseille

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Océane, Le Havre

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'MarseilleM. Greenwood (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Havre		Marseille
10	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	0
4	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
386	Passes	392
310	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Havre 1.24 · Marseille 1.69. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Le Havre 10 · Marseille 8; on target 2 and 3.

Referee

B. Bastien→

4.06

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.9%: “Marseille to win”. Second comes “Le Havre to win” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Le Havre, 1.82 for Marseille.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,279 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Havre to win25.3%

Draw24.8%

Marseille to win49.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	22

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Le Havre win or draw50.1%

12 — any result other than a draw75.2%

X2 — draw or Marseille win74.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Le Havre lead at half-time18.4%

Level at half-time41.5%

Marseille lead at half-time40.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Havre ahead or level59.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Marseille ahead81.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1279 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Havre: at least 11Actual: 20
Marseille: at least 12Actual: 22

Corners

Le Havre: at least 3
Marseille: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Havre score1.24

Attack: Le Havre score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Marseille's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Marseille score1.69

Attack: Marseille score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%1–210.6%0–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1279 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 100 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.